[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
Re: Paging Jim Bell
- From: Mirimir <mirimir AT riseup.net>
- Subject: Re: Paging Jim Bell
- Date: Fri, 27 Jul 2018 08:36:38 -0700
- Arc-authentication-results: i=1; mx.google.com; dkim=pass firstname.lastname@example.org header.s=squak header.b=ct7o+B+b; spf=pass (google.com: domain of cypherpunks-bounces AT lists.cpunks.org designates 188.8.131.52 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=cypherpunks-bounces AT lists.cpunks.org; dmarc=pass (p=NONE sp=NONE dis=NONE) header.from=riseup.net
- Arc-message-signature: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=google.com; s=arc-20160816; h=sender:errors-to:list-subscribe:list-help:list-post:list-archive :list-unsubscribe:list-id:precedence:content-transfer-encoding :content-language:in-reply-to:mime-version:date:message-id:autocrypt :openpgp:from:references:to:subject:dkim-signature:delivered-to :arc-authentication-results; bh=kUskbvEt/XWDIK9xiNyWKtnbA+f+loPIG0g/CiRxQFo=; b=0bRNNZBr37FdWRolfRWllijuBvNkkdCZWAMTYmEiP0y3nzB5/lK2h9UwmhV3ZrHfP+ 6VcaQGKOus1yuXLRKX2p+M0zV0JMx5tubHsNZA6phzqQJxVOQahB+LFJ+Y32K+KEJaYm y4nJz1EeqRNNZe+gWW1AsI8lGcPMbus+yZcamUKMZH7IXIW937mfF7dpwCUrKISQRvFY YnsRVE/qAXNnE/WiC/I6RzdiL02wC/gr5izf+ivxo+7PGNuWkhEjkkhLnZxklyjtRP5Z aBS6xcMWR5rx16CNC3KHOEms+CZFCFqgiu2CQT/GZhuvrOsE0xcbhP0zCyQoHi5UC1MV /RiA==
- Arc-seal: i=1; a=rsa-sha256; t=1532705836; cv=none; d=google.com; s=arc-20160816; b=V1/GBxCsOyCq1XEMq7NKwr8w2nkZ5SyHzJN3gEeG2xl2/TsGS6rmT+HT+fwxHL6uLM NKSaewmFeCviXcT+oI1whV6Mlvt8t6BmjtPGslKqoXE3wnOEBNEOtbnr9lOsL/XcC6KD pOkagZQ19CmAxv9Bs/IqTFHLd2x5exEqoB8MjRtWcnH1ciZNdYjxkHpomI0WOAb3nPnv xydx/H7rylzC7II+rHMaH3PTG1nmeru3muzi6NHr902rNjFEQFu7pY+0a1fnASsAHm0J Ddt/j5UokiK+Z7CBDMDYTBxt5hYc6Nv9u/UNFPk5RTmIvKtm0yFB5vryDZtLcY1BGyCU xCvQ==
- Autocrypt: addr=mirimir AT riseup.net; prefer-encrypt=mutual; keydata= xsBNBFEN49cBCADWl1VZKYO8L+f/65G2nBWzh41VTAZDcJSxMWXrBSvpJzzLt6sJf0L0Rjmy W4VPxJMCm/32auRAp8Xx1iNmBpvYENSM1YJVWfk43tlSOY8CR3TVODMxWPhUu48Pb9OKSntz WHGwdZmOr14zF9vr4PaS9A6+Hyt9FPKuGcQFw7K8jK1Hpp5XgdY/DMHKeaJykJ8JH1HBTFTT OJdxIWu6cZ+spNaNfKdnNjk98hMPw69isVGzcm7b3lJUsjVnMSqnrtZ8CSIv1njyxJH7NB5n LzrE7EiXR37k+4Poc9/DeLSAKrq5N3ZMpX1EDOoXFa8lLVGWHBTwVN/tl7FLM0NmVuL5ABEB AAHNHG1pcmltaXIgPG1pcmltaXJAcmlzZXVwLm5ldD7CwIEEEwECACsCGyMGCwkIBwMCBhUI AgkKCwQWAgMBAh4BAheAAhkBBQJafNQ7BQkNMVdkAAoJEGINZVEXwuQ+5LoIAKyZQDkNqj+Y E26o1bdEQlmOLhhXev45euNCnaFrnbOyKLivHdF4vvXyWBTzJmCsoRxTJ0A3Zmwa3ZihbKaU FCAdRgspLfA+TGICVYOztB+faWV18k5OTCk7ZiBQ/mOMQA4p3RPOV+UCgdelvZRHrFdUgHro dho/FqZhRoPdsPPB08QBisDO7SfFMMe9U9EZ03n4f2TvMgaTjK/kZCopwgLj2nB11SnCYfWJ jxUFDs+VFObf/jSK8T0SX9O6p430NWZm30vutUVac9lfodMjBcJqTnFxmZrwQomlCYGvSqNw 4Xy5+/gBzv/flXHngQSU053smHRtrMlGK5OU1RSixDfOwE0EUQ3j1wEIAMDcexhcaIO5jpl+ SHM14zuBvF2QG61IpH4Lag6nQmSMTljizuJg2kLaLbfc69AxmjuL5obqYi5ywXn4kQKqiwfa OHvVlKn662/J5YgXuc8tRLyqvgb+hibtAnlhWAuusP0eoQQP6SAASRjtrb8RVapTzJXy2Snf PtkcdtkTLLLcyeGoDOkpPkspnnp8avvI9ayzhGFLg9qNWaIuBMudxT6oHK4rZH+Sv6km9viI /ziV6E8Z+PpvMsGdebeYBLQA7ueuTbyOGbDyProwvocrKynI/UM40VYS8bS1PjWtljUlj7Vx 8C/746hnfdge0m24jnaWfu5UDjwpsHzs/JXqklsAEQEAAcLAZQQYAQIADwIbDAUCWnzURgUJ DTFXbwAKCRBiDWVRF8LkPsCjCACNvnnmpcDwEbtXUFZD/+ewNlPfM9o0mIXgi7DIVR9MVCw/ u14+mJUlQny4jPRV+hv/erjbiqEcVPZ296J3I4kUvO4slI+ZyODsRQSzwMz6ihwC6nN1xove YSBzVKKQrV+FDHVk6dJVLtgPdewOR9ZAar7mEbCLTJZ/e5aVb+NrlC1jWx3V3mMGCKOsEHhu 97cu3AswlxhzqPjczTo3rjtcfxdjeGU6mIEEAlhUlVDdfbGLODIyCXrP39zYxYXFFpVcbGAu +cndl1AQkIXUiMoJuzTMU8TQ+zz8yLof9fB7Y8O8VbmZBPQqN2IiHPeGbfqZjk/uHjJQUayI +beL0kxL
- List-archive: <http://lists.cpunks.org/pipermail/cypherpunks/>
- Sender: "cypherpunks" <cypherpunks-bounces AT lists.cpunks.org>
- To: cypherpunks <cypherpunks AT lists.cpunks.org>
On 07/25/2018 10:34 AM, jim bell wrote:
> Ah yes, excellent point, and quite true. I'd forgotten... Which is one reason this new system (I haven't looked at it yet) might not "work", at least it won't bring us an AP-type system. If the question is, "Will [fill in the blank with a name] be alive at the end of the year 2018?", then everybody who bets "No" is essentially on the same footing. They'd all share, proportionately, in the reward. A person who predicted death before 2019 is on the same footing as everyone else who made the same prediction. Thus, there is little incentive to "adjust the odds"acting outside of the game.
OK, so the prediction is "dead by 2019-01-01 00:00:00.000000000-00:00".
By late 2018, the odds against that are ramping up. And so is the
security level, I suppose. But anyway, at some time, the assassin (or
whoever's in control) places a huge bet. And watches the odds, and
monitors security etc. Then the assassin completes the job, and wins
big. Unless captured or killed, of course. Others who didn't fold also
win big, but hey.
> If, instead, the system is designed to allow bettors to 'predict' the date and perhaps even the time of the death, that system carefully excludes most other 'competing' bettors: If one bettor predicted December 1, and another predicted December 3, if the actual death occurred on December 1 all other bettors would lose the 'pot', and only those who predicted December 1 would share the 'pot'. This greatly leverages the betting. Which is why death-on-a-certain-date was my intended model when I wrote AP.
That also works. But much better is Steven Schear's proposal (next post
in thread) to encrypt more-or-less exact predictions, with leverage
depending on precision of the prediction. That mitigates against
increasing security when nearing the end of the prediction period.
> Jim Bell
> On Wednesday, July 25, 2018, 9:54:13 AM PDT, Steven Schear <schear.steve AT gmail.com> wrote:
> Another practical requirement is leveraged betting. This enables those intending to act outside of these online venues but with limited financial means to wager in such ways as their payouts are greatly disproportionate to their wagers.