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Re: Astonishing Lie by Hillary regarding Trump "Choke"

On 01/15/2017 10:39 PM, James A. Donald wrote:
> On 1/16/2017 11:44 AM, Mirimir wrote:
>> What's racist is judging someone,
>> based on race. It's unreliable. First, because reliably determining
>> someone's race is nontrivial.
> It is a lot easier, and a lot more reliable, to determine someone's
> race, than to determine their character.  And their race often gives a
> good enough prediction of certain important aspects of their character.
> In particular, in the events leading to the mortgage meltdown, race was
> a better predictor of propensity to default on one's mortgage than any
> of the permissible credit characteristics.
> You are walking down a dark street.  Two other people are also walking
> down that street.  One is a black male, one is a white male.  The black
> male is quite unlikely to murder you.  But if you are worried about
> being murdered, and you probably should be, he is one hell of a lot more
> likely to murder you than the white male.  About thirteen times more
> likely in fact.
> Similarly, if you are a banker who is worried that someone is going to
> blow off his mortgage ... well doubtless there are a lot of blacks,
> probably most of those blacks with good credit ratings, who will not
> blow off their mortgage.  But if someone is black with a good credit
> rating, he is one hell of a lot more likely to blow off his mortgage
> than someone who is white with a good credit rating.
> The more you know about a debtor, the less is race adds to accuracy of
> predicting the likelihood of default.  But even if you have complete
> credit data, race is still substantially predictive.  The chance of a
> white man and a black man with equal credit ratings defaulting on a
> mortgage is far from equal.
> Similarly, if a white man and a black man both have long and horrible
> criminal records, they are about equally likely to murder you.  But if a
> white man and a black man both have minor criminal records, the chance
> that the black man will go on to commit murder is far from equal.
> http://crustpunks.com/images/followyourleader2.png


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